August 16, 2007
From The Trading Desk of Peter Bain:

All of a sudden, traders love the greenback, and it has nothing to do with fundamentals – just raw emotion. They have also rekindled their love for the yen, now that the carry trade is suspect, in light of the so-called credit crunch in the U.S. and beyond (as a result of the sub-prime debacle and its tentacles into other markets and financial instruments). Most of the other currencies are in a free-fall, including the Canadian dollar. Who could have guessed, eh? Traders are seeing the greenback as a safe haven, as the dust settles from the sub- prime mess. A drop in U.S. trade deficit numbers yesterday also gave a lift to the greenback. The financial markets are facing their worst shakeup in about five years. It’s about time. Traders are looking for a safe haven, and one of those hiding places is the greenback, which all of a sudden doesn’t look all that bad as a place to park money in this blustering storm. Traders are unwinding their riskier equity and bond bets, and favoring U.S. Treasuries instead. All of this turmoil is offering up some great trading opportunities for forex traders – day and position traders alike. Most are short situations, except for the USD/CAD pair (my favorite), which is a recommended buy by the Danish Yske Bank. Add to that the fact that the commercial traders (Big Dogs) are extremely short the CAD, as well as they are with light sweet crude oil, and you have one heck of a good mix for further price increases for the pair.

-Peter
forexmentor.com