Friday, January 05, 2007

All signs pointed to further weakness for the Aussie

Forexmentor.com Forex Trading Price Action

AUD/USD: Facts – Negative divergence STO-to-price on the daily chart; inverted hammer on the weekly chart; thrust three in place on the weekly chart with confirmation from STO; downtrend continuation pattern on the 15 minute chart; 200, 100, and 50 EMAs all stacked in that order with a downward bias – all this evidenced before midnight ET. Translation: Watch out below! Sure enough, when the NFP news came out today, the Aussie continued its trek south. Now, while I have said many times in the past that you should be out of the market on an NFP day, say from 8:15 – 8:45 am ET, when you see all of the evidence that I presented above before that report comes out, you may wish to do what the smart money would do, and that is to take the short trade, in this case, before the news embargo lifts at 8:30 am ET, and hold it through the news hour. All signs pointed to further weakness for the Aussie, as well as other currencies like the euro and pound. So, a short trade on all three pairs would have worked famously in this case. For more on the secrets the Big Dogs have been hiding from you, check them out in the members’ area at www.forexmentor.com.

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Thursday, January 04, 2007

The Aussie’s heady days are over

Forexmentor.com Forex Trading Price Action

Back-to-back Death Crosses (50 through 100, then 100 through 200) on the 15 minute chart yesterday convinced me that today would be a ‘Down’ day for the Aussie (AUD/USD pair). Sure enough, price broke through the sideways price equilibrium/consolidation channel, coming into today’s session, and immediately headed south big time – in the form of Leg Two of a Downtrend continuation pattern. Is there any doubt in your mind that the Aussie has finally topped out on the weekly chart? Take a look at the inverted hammer just recently formed. That is a reversal formation – meaning that the Aussie’s heady days are over. Of course, the Big Dogs warned us that this was coming way back when. Unfortunately, their sentiment dictates that we exerciseextreme patience when looking for a top (or bottom). Serious (and successful) traders spend an inordinate amount of time proving tops and bottoms. That’s the hardest part in this business,and that’s where they put in a lot of their time. For more on what all this techno babble is about, head on over to the members’ area at www.forexmentor.com and check out the wealth of strategies, tips and techniques waiting for you there.

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Wednesday, January 03, 2007

A perfect setup for a fall on the AUD/USD pair

Forexmentor.com Forex Trading Price Action

I still maintain that the AUD/USD (Aussie) pair is topping out. It has just gone through its ‘third knock’ at the 7980 level, where it was repelled. Following negative MACD divergence to price on the 15 minute chart, just before midnight ET, price declined to M2 after the London open today – the expected low on this M2/M4 day. Once that was achieved, price then did a turnaround, and advanced as high as the Tom DeMark price projection dictated – on a trendline break, confirmed by MACD punching up through its trigger line. Lets not forget that the Big Dogs are extremely short the Aussie/long the USD – a perfect set-up for a fall. It’s just a matter of time, and I think that time is right. For more trading strategies, tips, and techniques, please consult the members area at forexmentor.com.

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