The USD/CHF pair has been in a free-fall

Forexmentor.com Forex Trading Price Action

It should come as no surprise to you all that the USD/CHF pair has been in a free-fall, given the Big Dogs were extremely short the Swissy – setting up the fall. Once the dumb money jumped on the bandwagon, it was, ‘Watch out below!’ Of course, I alerted you all to this fact earlier on – so, once I give you such information, you should play Dr. Sleuth, and get ready to ‘Sell the rallies in the downtrend!’ Take today, for example. All chart levels were showing price weakness, coming into today’s session. Using an oscillator like STO (Stochastics), it’s then simply a matter of selling those rallies folks. It doesn’t give much easier than that, once a currency pair gets on a roll. Trends are beautiful (like poetry in motion), once they reveal themselves. We go into great detail on how to use indicators properly in the members area at www.forexmentor.com. See you there, and at the bank.

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Peter Bain Forex Trading Commentary for Thursday November 9, 2006

Forexmentor.com Forex Trading Price Action

Back to the euro, by popular demand. But first, you're all on board with the USD/CAD pair, right? Right! The train's leaving, and the naysayers are chasing after it, wondering why they hadn't bought their tickets before. Okay, there was clear evidence on the daily, 4 hour and 1 hour charts last night that the euro had some wind in its sails. So, it was no big surprise today to see price rise up to the M3 level - the expected high for the day. Then, the news embargo lifted at 8:30 am, and the euro reacted negatively. Then, what todo? Well, by now, most of our members know we have a number of systems to trade the aftermath of news. There's the KTTN system that talks about using buy/sell stops to bracket price action after the news comes out. And then, of course, there's my favorite - Teresa Burnett's rendition on how to be a trading sleuth using technical indicators.

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Peter Bain Forex Trading Commentary for Wednesday November 8, 2006

Forexmentor.com Forex Trading Price Action

Referencing the pound today, COT sees the Big Dogs as being net short this currency. Well before the London open, the 1 hour MACD was signaling bearishness (it being below its trigger line, and heading down towards the waterline), and the 15 minute chart was showing signs of a downtrend continuation pattern in the works. And, of course, that pattern came to fruition after the London open.

One of the things to look for when you suspect that a downtrend continuation pattern might take place is to watch the behavior of MACD on the 15 minute chart. There, you will see it neutralize back up to the waterline - in this case - all the while price slithers sideways in a price equilibrium (or consolidation) pattern.

Once MACD has neutralized at the waterline, this then sets the stage for further price weakness, and MACD heads south accordingly.

We have a module in the library at ForexMentor.com that addresses the various price patterns you will encounter when you are trading the forex. See you there - and at the top and at the bank! Ka-ching!

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Peter Bain Forex Trading Commentary for Tuesday November 7, 2006

Forexmentor.com Forex Trading Price Action

I hate to disappoint you all today, but I'm going to talk about the euro. But first, the USD/CAD pair is STILL in an UPTREND, this despite a good jobs report on Friday. One piece of positive news does not a trend change!

And, now back to the euro - this because Herb Schmidt wanted to know if he was safe with his shorts at 1.2770 and a second lot at 1.2787. He asked this question last week, and I responded on Friday that he should be careful, given some strength I saw in the charts.

Well, today we had an uptrend continuation pattern unfold on the 15 minute chart, driving price ever higher. But, what I see happening is a paradox. According to the monthly and weekly charts, we're in a down-trend, whereas the lower level charts would have you believe other-wise. Translation: A good short opportunity in the works, if you believe what an oscillator like Stochastics (STO) is telling us (read, overbought).

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