Peter Bain Forex Trading Commentary for Friday October 20, 2006

Forexmentor.com Forex Trading Price Action

Okay, don't panic folks. The sky's not falling on the USD/CAD pair. Price just retraced - in the uptrend. If you take a look at the weekly chart, price is still above the most recent TomDeMark demand (support) trendline. What we see here is a golden chance to get into this pair on a position trade (long). Because, what the dumb money don't realize is that price will resume its upward momentum, sooner than later. It just takes guts in this business to go against the flow. It also takes a good dose of fortitude, wherein you have to bite your tongue, put your 'fear factor' in your hip pocket, and count to ten. Also, a ton of patience is in order. Just keep referring back to the weekly chart (or daily), if you're not sure what's going on, and believe what your eyes are seeing. That's the key. Today, we had a downtrend continuation pattern unfold on the 15 minute chart which, once consummated, should signal the end of this run down. Notice how price stopped dead in its tracks at M1 - the expected low on this M1/M3 day. Now's the time to get in. But, don't tell the dumb money that. We want this to be a total surprise to them. Let's just leave them in the dark where they belong. Join us in the members area at www.forexmentor.com for more stuff that the dumb money are ignorant of.

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Peter Bain Forex Trading Commentary for Thursday October 19, 2006

Forexmentor.com Forex Trading Price Action

"Forecast sends C$ to 3-month low." That was reported in the National Post, Wed., Oct. 18/06. The Bank of Canada left interest rates unchanged, and lowered its Canadian growthoutlook due to a softening U.S. economy. Just more in a string of bad news for the Canadian dollar (otherwise fondly called the loonie by some enthusiasts, of which I am not one). So, folks, I'm back on my theme of "buying the dips in the uptrend for the USD/CAD pair (since the loonie is weakening). Get it? Today, we had a pull-back in price to the 200 EMA level on the hourly chart. Methinks that is a good buy point. Of course, any weakness represents a good buy point, if you truly believe that the loonie has nowhere to go but down (read, up for the USD/CAD pair). It may take a while for price to break through the number two point of the 1-2-3 formation on the hourly and weekly charts, but that would be a good place to put your buy stop, if you're not already in the market - five pips above the number two point, at a level not ending in zero.

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Peter Bain Forex Trading Commentary for Wednesday October 18, 2006

Forexmentor.com Forex Trading Price Action

"The party is over (real estate)." That's a direct quote from a senior economist at a Canadian bank - one more nail in the loonie's coffin. The relatively high Canadian dollar has ravished the manufacturing sector in Canada's largest province - Ontario. And so, central Canada is getting slammed, and a recession is a distinct possibility. Add to that sluggish growth, and where do you think the loonie is going? I'll give you a hint - it ain't up. Translation: as the loonie continues to fall, the USD/CAD pair will continue to rise, given how the loonie is paired with the US dollar. Accordingly, what should one do? "Buy the dips in the uptrend." Where have you heard that before? You got it . Buy any and every weaknessin the pair you see, and expect a much higher result come year-end. This is where patience will be a test of your mettle. Today, we had another buying opportunity 6:30 am ET, wherein price swooned down to M2 - the expected low for the day - and then reversed, only to seek higher ground - again! Don't miss these opportuniutiues folks. Just keep an eye open for them.

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Peter Bain Forex Trading Commentary for Tuesday October 17, 2006

Forexmentor.com Forex Trading Price Action

The headlines read, "Sluggish growth could lead to recession." "C$ falls after strong U.S. retail report." "U.S. slowdown slams central Canada." Where do you think the Canadian dollar (a.k.a. the loonie) is going? According to one reliable source, it could hit US80.6 cents by year-end. Want more ammo? Oil has dropped 25% since the start of the year, natural gas is off by 60%, etc. Given that Canada is a resource-rich country, these trends do not auger well for a strong loonie. If you believe what I am telling you, then buying the USD/CAD pair on weakness, and holding it as a position trade, is a reasonable thing to do, right? Right! But, then be patient. It will not immediately grow to the sky, but rather saw-tooth its way up - gradually, as profit-taking takes place, and the dumb money put a sell on the pair. So, there you have it. An idea to chew on. Ka-ching, and have a great day!

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