Peter Bain Forex Trading Commentary for Friday October 13, 2006

Forexmentor.com Forex Trading Price Action

The USD/CAD pair is still my favorite lately, given fundamental and technical considerations. If you engineer a position trade on this pair, be sure to use a wider stop, as explained in Gary Gray's module in the members library at www.forexmentor.com. Also, use his entry and exit techniques. We are both on the same page on these aspects of position trading. Bottom line - buy any weakness you see, as this pair has nowhere to go but up (as the loonie crashes to earth). Well, not quite, but commodities prices are on the decline, and the Canadian dollar (loonie) could be in for a deeper retreat. Boy, am I a happy camper on that one. Watch out below folks. Down she goes, And, correspondingly, we should expect associated strength in the pair. Whoopee! Today, we had a reversal at the London open, to the north side - in the form of a spinning top, and following positive divergence on MACD to price - on the 15 minute chart. The weakness during the Asian session was foretold by the 4 hour and 1 hour charts (read, MACD having a bad case of the uglies). The weekly and daily charts still favor an advance for the pair (MACD full of smilies).

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Peter Bain Forex Trading Commentary for Thursday October 12, 2006

Forexmentor.com Forex Trading Price Action

I've been touting the merits of buying weakness on the USD/CAD pair of late - given that the pair is in a bonafide uptrend on the higher level charts (weekly, daily). Well, we had one such opportunity today, after the London open - in the form of positive divergence on MACD to price, after a swoon towards the end of the Asian session. Further evidence that this was a good buy point was the fact that today has been declared an M2/M4 day - M2 being the expected low on the day. Also, price received support from the upward-sloping 200 EMA - price halting its decline just above it. That's called a 'confluence of events' folks.

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Peter Bain Forex Trading Commentary for Wednesday October 11, 2006

Forexmentor.com Forex Trading Price Action

There are signs that the USD/CAD pair is getting tired, after a nice run up in price - Stochastics overbought on the daily chart, and MACD showing negative divergence both on the hourly and 15 minute charts. But, don't be fooled. This is just nature's way of tricking the dumb money into believing that the sky is falling. Of course, we know better, right? Invariably, we will see a pullback (a.k.a. a retracement), wherein we (the smart money) will get ready to pull the trigger again - to the long side, as either a day trade, or position trade. What else? After all, we have a nice 1-2-3 bottom in place on the daily and weekly charts, and the 200 EMA is trending up on the hourly and 15 minute charts. I would watch price behavior in relation to the 200 EMA and, looking for a confluence of events, then engineer a buy situation.

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Peter Bain Forex Trading Commentary for Tuesday October 10, 2006

Forexmentor.com Forex Trading Price Action

A cursory look at the daily, hourly and 15 minute charts last night told me the USD/CAD pair had only one way to go, and that was UP! Not only that, but we had a nice turnaround at the London close yesterday, facilitated by positive MACD divergence and an inside candle. With commodity prices slipping, the Bank of Canada holding interest rates, and jobs being added only at the part-time level, all signs point to a weaker loonie (read, higher USD/CAD pair). You all took my advice last week, and loaded up the boat, right? Please say yes.

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