Friday, September 29, 2006

Peter Bain Forex Trading Commentary for Friday September 29, 2006

Forexmentor.com Forex Trading Price Action

Yesterday, I talked about how price on the USD/CAD pair was going to go through the MACD neutralization process on the 15 minute chart, and price was also going to retest the common sense trendline on the daily chart, before it headed north again. Well, guess what folks .... that's exactly what it did. The uptrend on the pair is still intact. Translation: The Canadian dollar is experiencing the weakness I have been talking about of late. I am personally committed to being short the Loonie. My premise about also expecting further deterioration on the Aussie, euro and pound is also coming to fruition. What this all means is the U.S. dollar has legs, at least in the short term, commodities-rich countries are seeing their currencies suffer, as commodities prices wane, and the Canadian economy is not as robust as once thought.

See latest sample AM Review at: http://www.forexmentor.com/sampler/

Thursday, September 28, 2006

Peter Bain Forex Trading Commentary for Thursday September 28, 2006

Forexmentor.com Forex Trading Price Action

Today, I'm still with the Canadian dollar. What I see here is massive positive divergence on both forms of MACD on the weekly chart - in addition to which there is a 1-2-3 bottomformation in the works. Now, I don't anticipate a huge rise in the USD/CAD pair, but I do see enough potential strength to warrant our attention. Personally, all I want out of thismove up in price is the equivalent of .88 cents on the U.S. dollar, to make it worth my while. I have a lot of money riding on this crystal ball gazing. The 1.112 level seems tohold some significance. It is providing support, and has been since September 14. Today was no exception. After negative divergence on MACD to price on the 15 minutechart presaged a subsequent swoon in price, price halted in its tracks at that very level. Hmmmmm . It is further interesting to note that today is an M1/M3 day for the pair,and M3 is where the divergence took place. In sum, I am sill bullish on the pair. At least that's my take folks. I've been wrong before, but I don't think so in this case.

See today's chart at: http://www.forexmentor.com/campaign/sep2806.html

See latest sample AM Review at: http://www.forexmentor.com/sampler/

Wednesday, September 27, 2006

Peter Bain Forex Trading Commentary for Wednesday September 27, 2006

Forexmentor.com Forex Trading Price Action

Today, I'm still with the Canadian dollar. What I see here is massive positive divergence on both forms of MACD on the weekly chart - in addition to which there is a 1-2-3 bottomformation in the works. Now, I don't anticipate a huge rise in the USD/CAD pair, but I do see enough potential strength to warrant our attention. Personally, all I want out of thismove up in price is the equivalent of .88 cents on the U.S. dollar, to make it worth my while. I have a lot of money riding on this crystal ball gazing. The 1.112 level seems tohold some significance. It is providing support, and has been since September 14. Today was no exception. After negative divergence on MACD to price on the 15 minutechart presaged a subsequent swoon in price, price halted in its tracks at that very level. Hmmmmm . It is further interesting to note that today is an M1/M3 day for the pair,and M3 is where the divergence took place. In sum, I am sill bullish on the pair. At least that's my take folks. I've been wrong before, but I don't think so in this case.

See today's chart at: http://www.forexmentor.com/campaign/sep2706.html

See latest sample AM Review at: http://www.forexmentor.com/sampler/

Peter Bain Forex Trading Commentary for Wednesday September 27, 2006

Forexmentor.com Forex Trading Price Action

Today, I'm still with the Canadian dollar. What I see here is massive positive divergence on both forms of MACD on the weekly chart - in addition to which there is a 1-2-3 bottomformation in the works. Now, I don't anticipate a huge rise in the USD/CAD pair, but I do see enough potential strength to warrant our attention. Personally, all I want out of thismove up in price is the equivalent of .88 cents on the U.S. dollar, to make it worth my while. I have a lot of money riding on this crystal ball gazing. The 1.112 level seems tohold some significance. It is providing support, and has been since September 14. Today was no exception. After negative divergence on MACD to price on the 15 minutechart presaged a subsequent swoon in price, price halted in its tracks at that very level. Hmmmmm . It is further interesting to note that today is an M1/M3 day for the pair,and M3 is where the divergence took place. In sum, I am sill bullish on the pair. At least that's my take folks. I've been wrong before, but I don't think so in this case.

See today's chart at: http://www.forexmentor.com/campaign/sep2706.html

See latest sample AM Review at: http://www.forexmentor.com/sampler/

Tuesday, September 26, 2006

Peter Bain Forex Trading Commentary for Tuesday September 26, 2006

Forexmentor.com Forex Trading Price Action

We're back to the USD/CAD pair today. Here I see us still in an uptrend long-term on the weekly chart, but still experiencing a short-term retracement southward.

The weekly chart is displaying what would appear to be a nice 1-2-3 bottom, all the while MACD at that level is trending up, from below the water line. During periods of retracement, you want to keep an eye on the lower level charts, as in the 15 minute chart, for good trading set-ups.

Today, for instance, we had the classic turnaround in price at the London open, after a swoon in price, from the conclusion of the Asian session. Price then headed up to the bellwether 200 EMA, where it was repelled. I see any weakness in this pair as a good chance to grab a long position trade, subject to proper TA (technical analysis),and trade execution.

Gary Gray's module in the library at www.forexmentor.com will help out in this regard.

See today's chart at: http://www.forexmentor.com/campaign/sep2606.html

See latest sample AM Review at: http://www.forexmentor.com/sampler/

Monday, September 25, 2006

Peter Bain Forex Trading Commentary for Monday September 25, 2006

Forexmentor.com Forex Trading Price Action

There was a nice little high probability trade setup on the EURUSD over the last couple of sessions. A lot of people ask me what the best way to calculate the pivots for Sunday is - if I knew, I would tell you. I have not been able to find a CONSISTENT high probability way of doing so, if you have please email it in. What I have found, is the setup discussed intoday's AM Review to be a very consistent high probability setup. Also, please take the time to read the following article:

I JUST DON'T CARE

Have you ever seen those people who really don't care what anyone thinks? They seem to have an independent streak that sets them apart from everyone else. They may wear tennis shoes with an Armani suit or get a part time job at Starbucks so they can spend half their time surfing. There are many variations on the theme, but however they express themselves, the main point is that they don't care what the "rules" are; they merely care what they want to do. They are completely unabashedly individualistic. They come from all walks of life. I once met a young man from Beverly Hills who felt that he was a non-conformist because he changed his own oil in his car instead of going to the service station. That's a form of rule breaking, I guess. It's all relative. If a person is from an upper middle class family, and decides to go to trade school instead of university, that may be seen by family and friends as a radical departure. On the other hand, a person from a working class family who decides to go to college instead of working in the steel mill like three generations before him could equally be considered a radical. There is no single way to be individualistic. But however you define individualism, there is clearly a group of people whojust don't care what society thinks, what their families think, or what happens to them. They go their own way. How often do you go your own way? Are you constantly worried what people will think? It's hard not to go your own way, but if you can go your own way, you can trade like a master.

Many times, people get stuck on the notion that they absolutely must follow some set of rules. For example, a trader may think, "I have to make enough money this month to meet my monthly living expenses." This may be a rational, adaptive way to think, but is it absolutely true? There may be consequences for not making very much money, but in reality, you don't have to make any money at all in the end. You could afford to charge a month's worth of expenses if you wanted to, for example. I'm not suggesting that you do so. I'm just trying to make a point: In the final analysis, you do not have to do anything or pay attention to anyone else's rules if you do not want to. You can do anything that you want. This is a very useful thinking strategy when trading the markets.

Again, many times, people get it stuck in their head that they absolutely must do something, whether it is making $100 or $10,000. When they start thinking that they absolutely must do something, they start to put pressure on themselves to perform. Next, they start to feel a little stressed out. And then they can't think creatively. They stagnate and may not find creative, high probability setups. They would be better off thinking, "Who cares? I don't have to do anything. Whatever I make is what I make, and that's all that matters." Psychologists call this phenomenon the "paradox of control." When you put pressure on yourself and try to control your environment, you choke. When you think, "Who cares?" andcompletely forget about trying to gain control, however, it is a big relief. The pressure is off, and you start thinking creatively. In other words, when you try to gain complete control, you end up losing control. When you don't seem to care about gaining control, you ironically end up controlling things more than if you had consciously tried to gain complete control.

I'm not suggesting that you change the way you dress or that you completely become irresponsible. I am merely suggesting that there are those times when we put pressure on ourselves to perform, and ironically, when we push ourselves beyond our abilities, we usually choke and get nowhere. So when you are feeling stuck and in a rut, ease up. Tellyourself, "Who cares? I'm doing it my way." You'll find you feel relieved, calm, and ironically, ready to trade at your best.---- Innerworth

Seth Gregory
(for Peter Bain)
forexmentor.com