Peter Bain Forex Trading Commentary for Friday September 8, 2006

Forexmentor.com Forex Trading Price Action

Do you get that sinking feeling yet when you look at the euro? Where are the naysayers when you need them? They're all over the place when it's rising. I see nothing but red ink here folks. Last night, looking at the 4 hour (MACD and trigger line below the water line with good angle and separation) and the 15 minute (downtrending 200 EMA and MACD having neutralized), I knew price had only one way to go, and that was DOWN! Is it any wonder that the EUR/USD pair got as low as 2664 this morning? Hmmmmm . Where is the dumb money now? I guess they've given up trying to bid the pair up.

Hiding under a rock I guess. Another pair to watch is the USD/CAD. Methinks it's on the rise (read, the loonie is headed south). I sure hope so. I have a lot of money ridingon that one.

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Peter Bain Forex Trading Commentary for Thursday September 7, 2006

Forexmentor.com Forex Trading Price Action

Well, folks, shameless brag time - it looks like the dumb money may finally be giving up on the euro. As at this writing, the pair is at 2705 - quite a tumble. Could it just be that COT is proving itself right once again? Last night, I took my cue from the daily and 15 minute charts, wherein MACD was displaying bearishness. Sometimes, you have to play around with your various chart levels to get a 'feel' for what's really going on. The bellwether 200 EMA was trending down, and price was bucking that trend. Sure enough, after the London open, price crashed. Who could have guessed? Watch out below. Going down.

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Peter Bain Forex Trading Commentary for Wednesday September 6, 2006

Forexmentor.com Forex Trading Price Action

For two days in a row now, price has sought out M1 on an M1/M3 day, after the London open. This was no big surprise today, in that last night I could clearly see we were in a downtrend continuation pattern on the 15 minute chart, and MACD had already neutralized back up to the waterline.

Not only that, but the 200 EMA was sloping down. It was simply a matter of selling the rally up that EMA, just after the London open. Where have you heard that before folks?

I have a feeling this week, or shortly thereafter, we're going to get some direction on the euro, and I see that as being DOWN! Why? The Big Dogs are on the short side, extremely so, price is meeting resistance at the 1.29 level, we have a potential head and shoulders pattern shaping up on the weekly chart, and we have what would appear to be a bear flag in a downtrend there too. Need I go on?

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Peter Bain Forex Trading Commentary Tuesday September 5, 2006

Forexmentor.com Forex Trading Price Action

Last night, all chart levels pointed to lower prices for the euro, coming into today's session. That notion proved to be right, and each subsequent rally just became another great opportunity to go short - especially given the attitude of the 200 EMA.

The Big Dogs are STILL extremely short the euro and pound, and relatively long the dollar. This, combined with an okay NFP report on Friday, is dollar-positive.

So, where to from here? Well, there's lots of theories flying around, and some degree of consensus that 2480 is the target price for the euro. I see what could very well be a bear flag in a downtrend shaping up on the daily chart. Price is having a heck of a time penetrating the 1.29 level. Will it hold? Only time will tell, but I'm not changing my tune. I see more red ink ahead for the euro. That is not a popular theory, but one I'm sticking with.

Today is an M1/M3 day for the euro. Notice how price sought out that level bang on, before stabilizing.

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