Peter Bain Forex Trading Commentary for Friday August 25, 2006

Forexmentor.com Forex Trading Price Action

For two days in a row now, I have talked about the importance of the 200 EMA - especially on the 15 minute chart. When you see it trending down, and price spikes above it, that's a sure sign that price is going the wrong way. Check it out for yourself. Have a look at the 15 minute chart for the euro for the past two days, with the 200 EMA plotted, and you'll see what I mean. That's why the 200 EMA years ago was voted the best and most reliable indicator of the 99 indicators available to traders. Taking what I see on the hourly (200 EMA trending down) and the 4 hour (MACD trending down), I believe that we are in a downtrend continuation pattern on the 15 minute, given MACD has neutralized back up to the waterline. Regardless, the consensus seems to be that the euro has nowhere to go but down - perhaps to the 2480 level at some point - especially with the Big Dogs being extremely short with their COT positions.

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Peter Bain Forex Trading Commentary for Thursday August 24, 2006

Forexmentor.com Forex Trading Price Action

Yesterday, I talked about the role the 200 EMA played on the 15 minute chart, wherein price tested it twice after the London open to no avail. That's why the 200 EMA years ago was voted the best and most reliable indicator out of the 99 available to traders.

Today is no exception. After the London open, price spiked north, way beyond the 200 EMA, but I saw that move as really bucking the trend reflected by the 200 EMA - yet another opportunity to sell the rallies in the downtrend. I still see the euro tanking to the 2480 level, give or take, in the near term. But, if you take a look at the higher level charts, that's not all that extreme in the grander scheme of things. You will see what I mean if you check out the weekly chart. Anyways, just my two cents, as the summer doldrums continue to test our patience.

For more on what to look for as you are trading the forex, please take the time to check out what we have in store for you in the members area at www.forexmentor.com.

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Peter Bain Forex Trading Commentary for Thursday August 24, 2006

Forexmentor.com Forex Trading Price Action

Yesterday, I talked about the role the 200 EMA played on the 15 minute chart, wherein price tested it twice after the London open to no avail. That's why the 200 EMA years ago was voted the best and most reliable indicator out of the 99 available to traders.

Today is no exception. After the London open, price spiked north, way beyond the 200 EMA, but I saw that move as really bucking the trend reflected by the 200 EMA - yet another opportunity to sell the rallies in the downtrend. I still see the euro tanking to the 2480 level, give or take, in the near term. But, if you take a look at the higher level charts, that's not all that extreme in the grander scheme of things. You will see what I mean if you check out the weekly chart. Anyways, just my two cents, as the summer doldrums continue to test our patience.

For more on what to look for as you are trading the forex, please take the time to check out what we have in store for you in the members area at www.forexmentor.com.

See today's chart at: http://www.forexmentor.com/campaign/aug2406.html

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Peter Bain Forex Trading Commentary for Thursday August 24, 2006

Forexmentor.com Forex Trading Price Action

Yesterday, I talked about the role the 200 EMA played on the 15 minute chart, wherein price tested it twice after the London open to no avail. That's why the 200 EMA years ago was voted the best and most reliable indicator out of the 99 available to traders.

Today is no exception. After the London open, price spiked north, way beyond the 200 EMA, but I saw that move as really bucking the trend reflected by the 200 EMA - yet another opportunity to sell the rallies in the downtrend. I still see the euro tanking to the 2480 level, give or take, in the near term. But, if you take a look at the higher level charts, that's not all that extreme in the grander scheme of things. You will see what I mean if you check out the weekly chart. Anyways, just my two cents, as the summer doldrums continue to test our patience.

For more on what to look for as you are trading the forex, please take the time to check out what we have in store for you in the members area at www.forexmentor.com.

See today's chart at: http://www.forexmentor.com/campaign/aug2406.html

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Peter Bain Forex Trading Commentary for Wednesday August 23, 2006

Forexmentor.com Forex Trading Price Action

The short bias on the euro is still the way to go - i.e., selling the rallies in the downtrend. With the Big Dogs being heavily short with their sentiment, this is obviously the way to go. Now, I'm not saying you can't, or shouldn't, trade the retracements to the long side, as price saw-tooths its way southward to the 2480 level, or thereabouts - if you know how to do that, and what you're doing. But, the easiest thing to do, if you're a novice at this, is to simply wait for a rise in price against the trend, and look for a good entry pointto go short.

Take today, for example. The 4 hour chart last night reflected bearishness (MACD), and the 200 EMA was trending down. Ensuing positive divergence on MACD on the 15 minute saw the EUR/USD pair spike up to the 200 EMA at the London open, where it met resistance - and was repelled at the central pivot point.

For more on what all this technobabble is about, don't forget we have a library full of trading strategies, tips and techniques waiting for you in the members area at www.forexmentor.com.

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Peter Bain Forex Trading Commentary for Tuesday August 22, 2006

Forexmentor.com Forex Trading Price Action

Hi Folks! I'm back from vacation, and feel like I need another one right away. That's always the way it is when you catch some downtime. Anyway, I'm glad to be back. It looks like not much has happened with the euro - up, down, up, down . There's still lots of dumb money in the system yet to be flushed out.

The commercial traders (read, Big Dogs) are STILL extremely short the euro (and the pound this time) - and even more so than when I went on vacation. Oh, I don't expect the sky to fall, but I could certainly see the euro tumbling to the .24 level, before all is said and done. It may just take a while.

Commitments of traders data (aka COT) is NOT an indicator, but simply an expression of commercial sentiment, and it can take a while for their predisposition to filter through to the markets. It's called flushing the dumb money out of the system, of which there's lots around. It was no surprise to see the euroswoon into today's session, given what I saw on the hourly chart last night - MACD pointing down, with good angle and separation between it and its trigger line. That's all for now folks. Gotta save some words for tomorrow. See you then. Until then, don't forget that we have a TON of information waiting for you in the members area at www.forexmentor.com. forexmentor.com

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