Peter Bain Forex Trading Commentary for Friday August 4, 2006

Forexmentor.com Forex Trading Price Action

As at this writing, price on the euro has marched northward to 2878. If this level is broken, and the EUR/USD pair continues its trek north beyond the consolidation phase (say past 3000), then I'd have to concede that the downtrend sentiment has been broken. It all depends on whether we have an uptrend continuation pattern unfolding, or an uptrend reversal situation. Of course, we'll have to wait and see what the new COT (commitments of traders) report has to say later on today.

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Peter Bain Forex Trading Commentary for Thursday August 3, 2006

Forexmentor.com Forex Trading Price Action

Price on the euro is having a hard time penetrating the 2830 level - again, having swooned to approximately 2745 overnight, and then rebounded to retest the right shoulder of the potential head and shoulders pattern forming on the higher level charts. Of course, everybody is waiting for the NFP report due out tomorrow and, of course, news on where interest rates are headed. Further, we need to see where the Big Dogs are positioned with respect to their COT holdings. That data is coming out Friday afternoon at Barrie Lees' site referenced in my course. I still see the trend as down, and I'm going to be either all right or all wrong pretty soon. Oy! The joys of taking a stand for all to see and hear.

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Peter Bain Forex Trading Commentary for Wednesday August 2, 2006

Forexmentor.com Forex Trading Price Action

Sure looks to me like the euro is running out of gas. Is the dumb money giving up? Technically speaking, if you look at the higher level charts (monthly, weekly, daily), it sure looks like we are putting in a head and shoulders pattern, wherein price is pretty much at where the right shoulder should be. Or, are my eyes deceiving me? Combine that with the Big Dogs being short, and the other side going progressively that way, could we just maybe be at a top in this run? I know, I know. The Non-Farm Payroll report is coming out Friday, and Bernanke is wrestling with his interest rate dilemma. But, if you let the technicals speak for themselves, what do you think? Should make for an interesting balance of the week.

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Peter Bain Forex Trading Commentary for Tuesday August 1, 2006

Forexmentor.com Forex Trading Price Action

Well, I'm sticking my neck out, and sticking to my guns. I still see the trend as down on the euro. That said, the bulls and bears are duking it out, and keeping price pretty much in check above the 2700 level. I suspect that we will not see much movement until the Non-Farm Payroll report comes out this Friday. Then, let the fireworks begin. It might be advisable to stay out of the market at news hour, as that information hits the wire. In the meantime, scalping opportunities abound, as the EUR/USD pair is range-bound. Today, Tuesday, August 1/06 we had that classic turnaround at the London open, in the form of a trendline break, confirmed by MACD punching up through its trigger line. The ensuing run was worth an easy 30 pips.

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