Peter Bain Forex Trading Commentary for Friday July 14, 2006

Forexmentor.com Forex Trading Price Action

Is there any doubt in your mind as to where the euro is headed? I'll give you a clue. It's not up. Coming into today's session, the weekly and daily charts reflected bearishness, if you look at MACD. Also, price was below the 200 EMA on the 4 hour, and we had a death cross between the 89 and 144 EMAs on the 1 hour. When a curency pair is trending - down in the case of the EUR/USD - use an oscillator like Stochastics (STO) to sell the rallies in the downtrend. Look for STO to go overbought, and then pull the trigger. You'll only be wrong on the last rally, when the tide turns. For the fourth day in a row, we had a tradable reversal at the London open. Easy money each time. Today, positive divergence on MACD to price and two spinning tops made the reversal all the more obvious.

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Peter Bain Forex Trading Commentary for Thursday July 13, 2006

Forexmentor.com Forex Trading Price Action

For the past two days in a row, I have been talking about reversals that occur at the London open. Well, today was no exception. Witness the reversal at 3 am ET, wherein the euro tested the 200 EMA, before collapsing in a downtrend continuation pattern. Notice that MACD neutralized on the 15 minute chart first. MACD had been trending down on the 4 hour, and Stochastics (STO) had gone overbought. I wish to remind you once again that the Big Dogs are extremely short the euro. Proceed as you wish, but I know what side of the fence I'm on. The choice is always yours to join either the dumb money or the smart money.

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Peter Bain Forex Trading Commentary for Wednesday July 12, 2006

Forexmentor.com Forex Trading Price Action

Can you spell DOWN? Well, that's where the euro is going. And, who could have guessed? The Big Dogs have been warning us about this for quite some time now. Some of you have listened, and some have not. Oh well. That's life. Some people just want to fight the obvious, never to be heard from again. They certainly make a big roar about it, trying to prove their point, but eventually give up - when all their money is gone - and it's on to some other dream or scheme. Enough already, you say. Today, coming into the London open, we witnessed negative divergence on MACD to price, facilitating a gynormous swoon in price. Was anybody surprised? I'll bet the long dumb money were. Ka-ching for the smart money.

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Peter Bain Forex Trading Commentary for Tuesday July 11, 2006

Forexmentor.com Forex Trading Price Action

If you take a look at the daily chart for the euro, you will see that the two most recent Tom DeMark trendlines - one support and the other resistance - pretty much tell the story. Price is being contained by the resistance line, and the support line has turned resistance too. That, combined with the bearish COT sentiment, can spell only one direction for the euro, and that is down. Now, it won't drop like a stone, but it will invariably go that way. A Joe Cheung price projection sees the euro dropping to approximately the 2500 level in the interim. Today, we had a nice short-term reversal at the London open, in the form of railway tracks. Not much, but pretty obvious.

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