Peter Bain Forex Trading Commentary for Friday April 28, 2006

Forexmentor.com Forex Trading Price Action

Following yesterday's swoon in the Swissy, price then went into a sideways channel, whilst MACD on the 15 minute chart followed the classic routine of neutralizing back to the waterline. This is an important concept to master, as one look at the hourly chart, while that was going on, would have had you believe that MACD was diverging to price, which was not the case. I knew better, and was fully prepared to take advantage of the ensuing drop in price, which was very much predictable. On the channel breakout, just after the London open, price fell the same distance as leg one, which precipitated the fall. This was a classic downtrend continuation pattern, as documented in our library by Rick Kraai. As this pattern unfolds, MACD forms true divergence to price, which is a precursor to a rise in price.

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Peter Bain Forex Trading Commentary for Thursday April 27, 2006

Forexmentor.com Forex Trading Price Action

It looks like we may have turned the corner on the Swissy, at least for the time being. The daily chart is looking oversold, and the 4 hour and 1 hour charts showed MACD trending up, coming into today's session. Also, COT is showing both camps moving towards equilibrium, and the Big Dogs going ever shorter on the euro. When you see a trend change in the works, it's then time to use an oscillator like Stochastics (STO) to look for oversold conditions. Today saw price reaching for M4 on an M2/M4 day, which only made sense, given that the trend was UP.

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Peter Bain Forex Trading Commentary for Wednesday April 26, 2006

Forexmentor.com Forex Trading Price Action

The trend on the Swissy hasn't changed. It is still DOWN, and any spikes up in price action should be viewed as an opportunity to go short, including news rallies! You have to be careful on a day like this, when trading the news using the KTTN system, to keep the overall trend in mind - because, although that system may take you in to the upside on a valid break of the congestion area, the trend is still down, and the upside potential is limited at best. Watch out below! The other thing to keep in mind is the fact that today is an M1/M3 day, and the news rally took price way beyond the M3 level into dangerous territory - in a sell area, above the central pivot point.

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Peter Bain Forex Trading Commentary for Tuesday April 25, 2006

Forexmentor.com Forex Trading Price Action

I'm starting to sound like a broken record. The Swissy is STILL in a downtrend at all levels, representing on-going opportunites to sell rallies in the downtrend. Yesterday's news rally and today's London open rally are just two such examples. There have been many others in the past two weeks. Please take the time to go over the AM Reviews for the weeks of April 11th and 18th. Today, we had price rise into the London open, only to be met by a spinning top and negative divergence on MACD to price. Price was also bucking the overall trend, as reflected in the higher level charts and the relationship of price to the two EMAs - 89 and 144.

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