Peter Bain Forex Trading Commentary for Friday April 21, 2006

Forexmentor.com Forex Trading Price Action

As far as I am concerned, the trend on the Swissy (USD/CHF) is STILL DOWN, no matter how you slice and dice it. That's why the railway tracks just before the London open today were meaningful - at the end of a bit of a run up in price. Translation: watch out below! The ensuing short run down in price was worth a measly 20 pips, but well worth the taking, while this pair tries to make up its mind where to from here. Any guesses? I say bombs away! The bulls just don't have enough gas in their tanks. Too expensive, I guess. The pair has been climbing a wall of worry lately, and really bucking the commercial sentiment of being on the short side. Methinks it's not looking all that good for the U.S. dollar. Warren Buffett was right on when he went massively short the dollar in 2002, riding it down, all the while padding his bank account to the tune of 1.68 billion dollars - his first venture into currencies. Not bad Warren.

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Peter Bain Forex Trading Commentary for Thursday April 20, 2006

Forexmentor.com Forex Trading Price Action

Well, well, well. yesterday's news spike turned out to be just that - a rally in a downtrend (another way to trade the news). No amount of news was going to buck the overall trend (World War III excepted). Today, I am re-introducing the Guppy System to prove once and for all that the downtrend on the Swissy is in fact intact, just in case there were any doubts out there. The fast moving averages (blue) are clearly below the slow moving averages (red) on the daily and 4 hour charts. So, this rally, that started early afternoon ET yesterday, is just that - another rally in a downtrend. And, you would do what in this case? Sell the xxxxxxx in a xxxxxxx. Right? Right!.

See today's chart at: http://www.forexmentor.com/campaign/apr2006a.gif

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Peter Bain Forex Trading Commentary for Wednesday April 19, 2006

Forexmentor.com Forex Trading Price Action

The Swissy has had one heck of a ride down, and the trend is STILL DOWN, if you believe what you see in the higher level charts (weekly, daily, 4 hour, 1 hour)! Even news rallies are good opportunities to go short. No amount of so-called dollar-positive news is going to usurp this price weakness. It's called downward MOMENTUM - presaged by the Big Dogs, when they went extremely short the USD/CHF pair (long in the futures world). Of course, this freefall will be interrupted along the way with head-fake rallies, which are just teasers for the dumb money to part with some more of their money. A fool and his money are soon parted, as the saying goes. Today, we had a bottoming-out process at 5:15 am ET, which saw the pair reverse course - temporarily halting the recent swoon. Tom DeMark trendline analysis and a Joe Cheung price projection offered up an easy 40 pips.

See today's chart at: http://www.forexmentor.com/campaign/apr1906a.gif

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Peter Bain Forex Trading Commentary for Tuesday April 18, 2006

Forexmentor.com Forex Trading Price Action

All higher-level charts continue to point to further price weakness for the Swissy (USD/CHF pair). The dumb money is selling the pair in droves - a move set up by the Big Dogs, when they were at extreme odds with that group, as evidenced by the recent COT (Commitments Of Traders) data. Downward momentum is now underway in full force, with the ever-present possibility of retracements along the way. Sell the rallies in a downtrend. Where have I heard that before? This business doesn't have to be all that difficult, if you would just follow a few basic precepts of good trading technique. Today, we're going to explore the much mis-understood concept of MACD neutralization, later on in the AM Review.

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