Peter Bain Forex Trading Commentary for Friday April 14, 2006

Forexmentor.com Forex Trading Price Action

The trend is clearly down, if you believe what you see on the higher level charts - weekly, daily, 4 hour and 1 hour. Yesterday's news blow-off was another perfect example of adhering to the principle of selling the rallies in a downtrend. Price was clearly above the 89 and 144 EMAs (read, going the wrong way). Even if you don't know how to trade the news, no amount of news could have reversed the prevailing trend, short of a major world event. Since that time, the Swissy has been in a sideways channel - probably due in most part to the upcoming long Easter weekend, wherein traders are taking a sojourn. One way of taking advantage of anemic price action is to follow Cliff Attewell's advice - scalping off the lower level charts (5-1 minute), using a combination of Bollinger bands and RSI.

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Peter Bain Forex Trading Commentary for Thursday April 13, 2006

Forexmentor.com Forex Trading Price Action

Trading opportunities continue to abound with the Swissy. Yesterday's run-up in price that started with the NY open, and culminated in a blow-off post-news, was nothing more than a counter-trend move, in the grander scheme of things (read, sell the rallies in a downtrend). The ensuing swoon halted just after the London open today in the form of a bottoming-out process at M2 - the expected low on an M2/M4 day. Tom DeMark trendline analysis and a Joe Cheung price projection on the 5 minute gave clues of a 20-pip short-term scalp to the upside, remembering that the overall trend was STILL DOWN! A quick look at the 4 hour chart gave quick evidence of that fact.

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Peter Bain Forex Trading Commentary for Wednesday April 12, 2006

Forexmentor.com Forex Trading Price Action

Well, well, well . I hate to say I told you so, but yesterday I said the London open counter-trend rally was to be short-lived - and short-lived it was - collapsing at news time. Who could have guessed? All charts were screaming, "Down!" And, no different into yesterday pm . The trend was still clearly down, and price had nowhere to go but down. We had a 'death cross' of the moving averages at the close of the New York session. Accordingly, it was prudent to wait for an over-bought reading on an oscillator like Stochastic to look for a place to go short. That opportunity came just before the London open today, when price touched the 89 EMA.

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Peter Bain Forex Trading Commentary for Tuesday April 11, 2006

Forexmentor.com Forex Trading Price Action

The USD/CHF pair is still my favorite, given the attitude of the Big Dogs (read, COT negative - positive in the futures world). If you look at all timeframes for this pair, the trend is DOWN (referencing MACD). Accordingly, an oscillator like Stochastics (STO) is a good tool to use to peg good short opps. - one being the Hong/Sing open last night. What we witnessed at the London open today was nothing more than a counter-trend retracement, which is worth taking, if you know what you are doing. Price put the brakes on just past M2 - the expected low for the day. The ensuing upward move was obviously to be short-lived.

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