Peter Bain Forex Trading Commentary for Friday March 24, 2006

Forexmentor.com Forex Trading Price Action

We're all looking for clues as to when the Swissy will fall out of bed, and head south again. All I can do is offer what I see, as I truly do believe that the commercial sentiment will, once again, come to fruition, and prove that what we're witnessing here is nothing more than a retracement. Common sense trendlines on the dailycharts for the Swissy and the pound reflect that the downtrend and uptrend are in-tact respectively. And, I see positive divergence on the 15 minute for the pound, following divergence. This can be used as a proxy for the Swissy, and lead one to conclude that its top is near. I personally don't see much more upside potential here, nor do I see the pound falling much further. Of course, I've been wrong before, but I have to call it as I see it.

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Peter Bain Forex Trading Commentary for Thursday March 23, 2006

Forexmentor.com Forex Trading Price Action

Call me stubborn, but I am still of the opinion that the Swissy (USD/CHF pair) has a ways to go down yet, once it finishes its head fake (retracement) on the daily chart. Traders (those long enthusiasts) are reacting to Bernanke's recent remarks that further interest rate tightening in the U.S. may be required to cool inflation. Of course, this is all pure conjecture at this point, but that's what the markets are reacting to. Technically speaking, all I see happening is a 1/2 to 2/3 retracement. If you look at what's happening on the hourly chart for the pound, you will see a doulble bottom that just recently concluded. That tells me that the Swissy doesn't have much gas left in its tank. Today, we had a nice swing trade just after the London open - and not exactly at 3 am ET either. Nothing even happens in the forex at an exact time, except when the news comes out at 8:30 am ET. A subsequent price projection (a la Joe Cheung) saw price going up to ~3073, give or take, and that's pretty much where price ended its run. 3073, by the way, is a resistance level (M3 pivot), and price at that level is in a sell area - the area above the central PP having a sell bias.

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Peter Bain Forex Trading Commentary for Wednesday March 22, 2006

Forexmentor.com Currency Trading Price Action

I am still with the Swissy today, and here is what I see as at 9 am ET: The daily chart is clearly in a downtrend, which is totally consistent with the latest COT reading. Yes, we're experiencing a retracement, but take a look at MACD. It is angled down, with clear separation between it and its trigger line. We are simply experiencinga downtrend continutation pattern. Both the hourly and 15 minute charts have experienced negative divergence, MACD to price.

I wish to remind you that there are times of the day that you want to be particularly alert to swing trades, as in the news hour (8:30 am ET), the London close (~noon ET), the Tokyo open (~6 pm ET), and the London open (~3 am ET). Notice I have indicated approximately with ~ because nothing happens in the forex on a dime exactly at the times mentioned, with the exception of when the news embargo lifts at 8:30 am ET.

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Peter Bain Forex Trading Commentary for Tuesday March 21, 2006

Forexmentor.com Currency Trading Price Action

I'm back on the Swissy, mainly because of what I see with the commercial sentiment (read, long the currency, but short the USD/CHF pair - extremely so). I wouldn't be at all surprised if what I see happening on the daily chart is nothing more than a downtrend continuation pattern unfolding, and that what we're seeing on the lower level charts (hourly, 15 minute) are counter-trend fake-out moves. Witness price being repelled by the 144 EMA on the hourly, and negative divergence having formed on the 15 minute. The overall trend is clearly down, if you believe what MACD is telling us on the daily.

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