Peter Bain Forex Trading Commentary for Tuesday March 14, 2006
Forexmentor.com Currency Trading Price Action
Hear ye! Hear ye! The commercial traders are extremely long the Swissy and Aussie, meaning that you should expect the AUD/USD pair to advance from here, and correspondingly one would presume that the USD/CHF has nowhere to go but DOWN! You heard it hear first.
If you are a position trader, this information is vital. Once you know what the Big Dogs are up to, you then have to exercise good trading sense to pick your entry points at the right time and place off the respective daily charts. The beauty of trading is that one can also day trade, and take advantage of short-term counter-trend trades off lower level charts (read, hourly and 15 minute). Today, for instance, we had a nice bounce off railway tracks at 4:30 am ET for the Swissy on the 15 minute. This was to be expected, given the expected low coming in at the M1 level, and the formation of MACD divergence. But, I see this as short-lived, as the overall trend is down, and the spike up was really going against the grain. Don't forget what I said about the commercial sentiment presaging a fall for the Swiss franc in the forex world, and a rise in its sister futures counterpart.
See today's chart at: http://www.forexmentor.com/campaign/mar1406.html
See sample AM Review at: http://www.forexmentor.com/sampler/
Forexmentor.com Forex Trading News
Morgan Stanley now expect the Fed to increase the Federal funds rate to 5.25% by September or so. Previously, they thought the Fed would stop at 5%. Their change of heart is attributed to strong US and global growth.
8:30 am ET news reported softer-than-expected headline retail sales data, which was dollar-negative.
The slide in the Canadian dollar seems to have halted at a common sense demand (read, support) trendline on the nearest month's daily chart. This after it dropped to a seven-week low versus the U.S. dollar on smaller-than-expected January surplus data. Canada's currency typically moves in tandem with commodity prices, but lately the currency market has been paying more attention to economic data and interest rate expectations. Canada's unemployment rate is the lowest it's been in three decades.
Crude oil prices are up from a three-week low on fears of further disruptions to Nigeria's production and Iran's refusal to suspend its uranium enrichment program.
Hear ye! Hear ye! The commercial traders are extremely long the Swissy and Aussie, meaning that you should expect the AUD/USD pair to advance from here, and correspondingly one would presume that the USD/CHF has nowhere to go but DOWN! You heard it hear first.
If you are a position trader, this information is vital. Once you know what the Big Dogs are up to, you then have to exercise good trading sense to pick your entry points at the right time and place off the respective daily charts. The beauty of trading is that one can also day trade, and take advantage of short-term counter-trend trades off lower level charts (read, hourly and 15 minute). Today, for instance, we had a nice bounce off railway tracks at 4:30 am ET for the Swissy on the 15 minute. This was to be expected, given the expected low coming in at the M1 level, and the formation of MACD divergence. But, I see this as short-lived, as the overall trend is down, and the spike up was really going against the grain. Don't forget what I said about the commercial sentiment presaging a fall for the Swiss franc in the forex world, and a rise in its sister futures counterpart.
See today's chart at: http://www.forexmentor.com/campaign/mar1406.html
See sample AM Review at: http://www.forexmentor.com/sampler/
Forexmentor.com Forex Trading News
Morgan Stanley now expect the Fed to increase the Federal funds rate to 5.25% by September or so. Previously, they thought the Fed would stop at 5%. Their change of heart is attributed to strong US and global growth.
8:30 am ET news reported softer-than-expected headline retail sales data, which was dollar-negative.
The slide in the Canadian dollar seems to have halted at a common sense demand (read, support) trendline on the nearest month's daily chart. This after it dropped to a seven-week low versus the U.S. dollar on smaller-than-expected January surplus data. Canada's currency typically moves in tandem with commodity prices, but lately the currency market has been paying more attention to economic data and interest rate expectations. Canada's unemployment rate is the lowest it's been in three decades.
Crude oil prices are up from a three-week low on fears of further disruptions to Nigeria's production and Iran's refusal to suspend its uranium enrichment program.
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