Peter Bain Forex Trading Commentary for Thursday March 2, 2006
Forexmentor.com Currency Trading Price Action
The trend on the daily chart for the euro is still UP, as a common sense demand (read, support) trendline is being respected at that level. Yesterday, in the am review, I indicated that price on the 15 minute was bucking the trend I was reading into MACD on the hourly, and that we should expect divergence. Well, that happened, as what you see on the hourly rules. Price then went into a period of sideways action (read, consolidation or equilibrium - i.e., traders trading wood). By watching the euro and pound side by each, a downtrend continuation pattern was expected to unfold - and it did quite nicely for the pound. The euro, on the other hand, decided to test its expected high for today (M3), before following the pound in like kind. That's the advantage of watching the 'three musketeers' in unison. By observing price action on the 5 minute for the euro, it was pretty easy to see what was going on, by observing the behavior of the 10 and 80 EMAs.
See today's chart at: http://www.forexmentor.com/campaign/mar0206.html
See sample AM Review at: http://www.forexmentor.com/sampler/feb2306.html
Forexmentor.com Forex Trading News
Recent U.S. regional data, weaker than expected, indicates a weakening U.S. economy, and raises questions about corporate profits and economic growth. That data included existing home sales, consumer confidence, and Midwest business conditions. Of course, the biggest surprise of all has to be Google, which all of a sudden is saying that their Internet-search advertising growth is slowing.
North of the border, the exact opposite is true . High commodity and energy prices and sturdy economic growth may leave the BoC with no choice in the matter of raising interest rates. Higher borrowing costs will be loonie-positive, and that's what has driven that currency to a 14-year high. That, combined with slower growth in the U.S., is giving Canadian exporters a bad case of heartburn.
Oil worries abound. Now, it's concern over shipments from Saudi Arabia and Iran being disrupted. U.S. stockpiles of oil, at healthy levels (actually above the five-year average), are not enough to assuage geopolitical fears.
The trend on the daily chart for the euro is still UP, as a common sense demand (read, support) trendline is being respected at that level. Yesterday, in the am review, I indicated that price on the 15 minute was bucking the trend I was reading into MACD on the hourly, and that we should expect divergence. Well, that happened, as what you see on the hourly rules. Price then went into a period of sideways action (read, consolidation or equilibrium - i.e., traders trading wood). By watching the euro and pound side by each, a downtrend continuation pattern was expected to unfold - and it did quite nicely for the pound. The euro, on the other hand, decided to test its expected high for today (M3), before following the pound in like kind. That's the advantage of watching the 'three musketeers' in unison. By observing price action on the 5 minute for the euro, it was pretty easy to see what was going on, by observing the behavior of the 10 and 80 EMAs.
See today's chart at: http://www.forexmentor.com/campaign/mar0206.html
See sample AM Review at: http://www.forexmentor.com/sampler/feb2306.html
Forexmentor.com Forex Trading News
Recent U.S. regional data, weaker than expected, indicates a weakening U.S. economy, and raises questions about corporate profits and economic growth. That data included existing home sales, consumer confidence, and Midwest business conditions. Of course, the biggest surprise of all has to be Google, which all of a sudden is saying that their Internet-search advertising growth is slowing.
North of the border, the exact opposite is true . High commodity and energy prices and sturdy economic growth may leave the BoC with no choice in the matter of raising interest rates. Higher borrowing costs will be loonie-positive, and that's what has driven that currency to a 14-year high. That, combined with slower growth in the U.S., is giving Canadian exporters a bad case of heartburn.
Oil worries abound. Now, it's concern over shipments from Saudi Arabia and Iran being disrupted. U.S. stockpiles of oil, at healthy levels (actually above the five-year average), are not enough to assuage geopolitical fears.
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