Peter Bain Forex Trading Commentary for Wednesday March 1, 2006
Forexmentor.com Currency Trading Price Action
The euro, pound and swissy have all had nice runs since the 26th of Feb. Looking closer in on the euro, MACD on the hourly chart is showing weakness - with price action on the 15 minute trying to buck that trend. It wouldn't surprise me to see negative divergence form on the 60 minute. Looking at the daily, the uptrend appears to have been salvaged by the recent rally. Yesterday's reported news about the ECB's desire to jack up rates was obviously euro-positive. Let the fight begin. Canada and the U.S. also have plans to tighten further. Should be an interesting race. Concerning today's day trading opps., nothing was terribly obvious on the 15 minute for the euro - as price just meandered sideways - but, a nice reversal at the London open for the pound was quite apparent. There's virtue in keeping an eye on these three major pairs - the three muskateers.
See today's chart at: http://www.forexmentor.com/campaign/mar0106.html
See sample AM Review at: http://www.forexmentor.com/sampler/feb2306.html
Forexmentor.com Forex Trading News
State-side, better-than-expected earnings and lower oil prices are fuelling the markets. Housing-wise, though, it's anybody's guess as to what is really going on. A recent government report indicated that new home sales dropped more than had been expected. A sign of the bubble bursting? Yeah, but not so quick . Lowe's came in with the biggest increase in quarterly profit in three years. That said, the Fed Reserve's resolve to fight inflationary fears by further tightening of interest rates has got to have an impact on housing somewhere down the line. Ditto for Canada.
Canada's economy (the world's eighth largest) is on a tear, prompting some to believe that the BoC may have no other alternative but to raise its key interest rate further. The Canadian dollar approached a 14-year high recently on the heels of a government report showing Canada's current account surplus widened to a record last quarter. This is the broadest measure of international trade. The BoC has raised rates four times since September in its fight against inflation. All bets are on two more rate increases, with rates rising to the 4% level. Translation: expect a strong Canadian dollar.
First it was Nigeria, then it was Saudi Arabia, but terrorist threats have not resulted in sustained higher prices for crude oil. However, prices are still 18% higher than a year ago. Translation: inflation-positive. Natural gas hit its lowest point in more than eight months, as milder weather is in the forecast. This results in less pressure on utilities to use stored reserves to meet heating demands.
The euro, pound and swissy have all had nice runs since the 26th of Feb. Looking closer in on the euro, MACD on the hourly chart is showing weakness - with price action on the 15 minute trying to buck that trend. It wouldn't surprise me to see negative divergence form on the 60 minute. Looking at the daily, the uptrend appears to have been salvaged by the recent rally. Yesterday's reported news about the ECB's desire to jack up rates was obviously euro-positive. Let the fight begin. Canada and the U.S. also have plans to tighten further. Should be an interesting race. Concerning today's day trading opps., nothing was terribly obvious on the 15 minute for the euro - as price just meandered sideways - but, a nice reversal at the London open for the pound was quite apparent. There's virtue in keeping an eye on these three major pairs - the three muskateers.
See today's chart at: http://www.forexmentor.com/campaign/mar0106.html
See sample AM Review at: http://www.forexmentor.com/sampler/feb2306.html
Forexmentor.com Forex Trading News
State-side, better-than-expected earnings and lower oil prices are fuelling the markets. Housing-wise, though, it's anybody's guess as to what is really going on. A recent government report indicated that new home sales dropped more than had been expected. A sign of the bubble bursting? Yeah, but not so quick . Lowe's came in with the biggest increase in quarterly profit in three years. That said, the Fed Reserve's resolve to fight inflationary fears by further tightening of interest rates has got to have an impact on housing somewhere down the line. Ditto for Canada.
Canada's economy (the world's eighth largest) is on a tear, prompting some to believe that the BoC may have no other alternative but to raise its key interest rate further. The Canadian dollar approached a 14-year high recently on the heels of a government report showing Canada's current account surplus widened to a record last quarter. This is the broadest measure of international trade. The BoC has raised rates four times since September in its fight against inflation. All bets are on two more rate increases, with rates rising to the 4% level. Translation: expect a strong Canadian dollar.
First it was Nigeria, then it was Saudi Arabia, but terrorist threats have not resulted in sustained higher prices for crude oil. However, prices are still 18% higher than a year ago. Translation: inflation-positive. Natural gas hit its lowest point in more than eight months, as milder weather is in the forecast. This results in less pressure on utilities to use stored reserves to meet heating demands.
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