Thursday, February 23, 2006

Peter Bain Forex Trading Commentary for Thursday February 23, 2006

Forexmentor.com Currency Trading Price Action

Using either the KTTN or MMTS systems to trade the aftermath of news yesterday would have been the prudent thing to do, as the 8:30 am ET swing point coughed up a nice run into today. Even if you missed that trade, we had a nice channel breakout today, as the Asian session finale and the opening of the London/Tokyo sessions collided. This was evidenced, not only by the breakout on the 15 minute chart, but also by observing the relationship of stochastics on the hourly chart to the behavior of the 10 and 80 EMAs on the 5 minute chart (read, the 'Jeff Hughes trade'). Yesterday's 'news trade' was further facilitated by a classic inverted head and shoulders pattern, which also foretold the rise in price into today's session. Any way you slice and dice it, the trend at all chart levels for the euro is UP!

See today's chart at: http://www.forexmentor.com/campaign/feb2306.html

See sample AM Review at: http://www.forexmentor.com/sampler/feb2206.html

Forexmentor.com Forex Trading News

An index of economic indicators and the minutes of the Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting both point to the notion that the central bank won't stop raising rates any time soon. The Conference Board's January index of leading indicators rose almost twice as much as had been expected. In the Jan. 31 meeting minutes, the Fed policy makers pointed to inflation as being higher than they would have liked, given earlier rate increases.

In Canada, the picture for interest rates is pretty much the same. Canadian retail trade is strong, leading one to believe that the Bank of Canada will follow through with interest rate increases.

Crude oil prices are at the mercy of the unsettling events in Nigeria, Africa's biggest oil producer. Rebel attacks on that country's production facilities halted almost a fifth of its output. A lot of oil has been taken off the market as a consequence, and yet oil price increases have been seemingly benign.